Tuesday, August 6, 2019
George Orwell, 1984 Essay Example for Free
George Orwell, 1984 Essay The last and arguably most powerful book to be written by renowned novelist George Orwell (pseudonym of Eric Arthur Blair), 1984 is the chronicle of mankindââ¬â¢s gradual decay under aggressive totalitarianism and blind ideology. The influence of the novel is such that some terms such as ââ¬Å"Big Brotherâ⬠, ââ¬Å"doublethinkâ⬠and ââ¬Å"newspeakâ⬠have somehow found their way into the modern lexicon. Orwell visualized a world under constant war, with entire societies threatened by an omniscient government that wields control even over an individualââ¬â¢s very thoughts. Half a century after the bookââ¬â¢s publication, academics and casual readers alike continue to find disturbing similarities between Orwellââ¬â¢s 1984 and todayââ¬â¢s increasingly intrusive institutions. With censorship, political rhetoric and propaganda becoming more and more like the slogans of Orwellââ¬â¢s dystopian society each day it is unsurprising that the novels remain quite a favorite among academics and literary experts alike. Orwellââ¬â¢s startling depiction of a totalitarian state peddling lies and deceit to its willing masses remains relevant and ââ¬â to some extent ââ¬â frighteningly prophetic of the present generation. Decades after it first saw print, 1984 still achieves significant readership ââ¬â a literary warning that enemies of propaganda and censorship revisit time and again as a standard through which the growing excesses in government control and power could be measured. It is the worldââ¬â¢s worst case scenario, and its enduring social relevance is a testament to both Orwellââ¬â¢s literary style and deep understanding of the human psyche. This paper posits that George Orwells 1984 is a dystopian novel that deftly tackles the power of language and censorship in controlling both society and the individual; hence its enduring relevance to academic studies on the political and social status quo. This study shall begin with a brief summary of the novel in order to provide a narrative background. The following discussion involves three parts: first, what is the style or form of the novel, and how does it add to the novels appeal and narrative? Second, what are the main themes of the novel? Lastly, how do these themes ââ¬â combined with the novel ââ¬â remain relevant to the present times, hence its popularity with academics in the sociopolitical and literary fields? These are the questions that this study must answer in order to prove its thesis. Summary 1984 is the story of Winston Smith, a member of the Outer Party residing in what used to be London. Smith is a citizen of Oceania, one of the three superstates in the world of 1984. The protagonist lives a life of controlled existence; he works in the Ministry of Truth, rewriting news stories and editing photographs in order to make history ââ¬Å"adhereâ⬠to the Partys current slogan. People who went against the Party disappeared and made unpersons ââ¬â there entire existence is erased by workers like Winston Smith. History, therefore, is constantly edited to fit whatever propaganda or slogan the Party is currently espousing. Though a member of the Party, Smith is far from a dedicated follower. He harbors a secret journal of illicit thoughts about freedom and woodenly participates in the Two Minutes of Hate and other standard Party propaganda activities. Smith meets and falls in love with Julia; there liaison, however, is both illicit and illegal. It is punishable by law, so Wilson and Julia find a sanctuary in a room above an old junk shop for their trysts. They are betrayed, however, and soon find themselves in the Ministry of Love where they are tortured and ââ¬Å"reeducatedâ⬠. In the end, fazed by the horrors of Room 101, Wilson and Julia succumb and betray each other. They are then released to await their execution on a later date. At the end of the novel, Wilson Smith accepts the power of Big Brother and willingly accepts his fate. Style and Formà George Orwells 1984, along with Ray Bradburys controversial Fahrenheit 451 and Aldous Huxleys Brave New World, is one of the worlds best-known dystopian novels. It presents a world entirely gloomy and pessimistic ââ¬â the opposite of a utopia wherein everything is perfect and in its proper place. As Brunsdale (2000) points out, a dystopia is ultimately a ââ¬Å"hopelessly wrong societyâ⬠(p. 146). It is a world that has turned entirely upside down, with nearly everything completely unlike what man would envision as paradise. It is an imagined world perverted ââ¬â entirely a subversion of all that society must aspire for. For George Orwell, this world is a warning, a terrible vision that could become a reality if totalitarianism and government intrusion continues unchecked. The use of a dystopian form is particularly useful in delivering Orwells message. A staunch critic of imperialism and other authoritarian forms such as communism and fascism, Orwells novel is a chilling portrait of what could happen should totalitarian politics remain unabated. His disgust with British Socialism, for example, made its way into the novels newspeak as Ingsoc (English Socialism). By presenting the novel in a dystopian form rather than a different kind of exposition, Orwell successfully parlays his sociopolitical ideas easily through an interesting world rather than a non-fiction tome of tedious words that may find comfort in cobwebs. A form other than dystopia would not have been able to deliver the message as effectively as 1984 has done. Central Themes But what exactly is it that 1984 wishes to convey? At first glance, it seems as if 1984 is doomed to be a dated indictment of the faults of the British Empire in 1948 ââ¬â when Orwell completed the novel. In truth, however, the novel is more than the indictment of one government. It is not a scathing criticism on Stalinism, or the British Empire, or Hitlers destroyed Third Reich alone. It is an attack against Totalitarianism in whatever form or country, as it takes root and slowly sucks the life and freedom out of the individual and society as a whole. The novel is a critique; a warning against what could happen following the unchecked growth of totalitarian governments. It is not the alliance or the nationality, therefore, that matters, but the possible presence of totalitarian rule. One crucial theme in the novel that supports its criticism of totalitarianism is the power of language. Orwell emphasized the power of language in controlling the individuals mental freedom, particularly in terms of how much and how broad he is allowed to conceptualize. With words and language designed to limit the mind of the person, it is quite possible to exert control and slowly manipulate his or her inner thoughts. Such is the power of newspeak and doublethink ââ¬â both significant concepts from the novel that gradually crossed over to the mainstream jargon. These concepts are reliant on both language and the formation of thought as the primary tools through which the Party and Big Brother carry out their manipulative plans. An example of Newspeak is the naming convention that led to the ironic names of the ministries in Orwells dystopian society. The Ministries are named in a weird manner quite opposite to what they truly stand for. For example, the Ministry of Love is one of the most fearsome ministries in Oceania, as this is where prisoners are brought for torture, reeducation and execution. The Ministry of Truth where Smith works is quite a paradox, as it concerns itself not with the propagation of truthful information, but with the erasure of people and events no longer in line with the present party rhetoric. The Ministry of Plenty and Ministry of Peace are similarly ironically named. Wemyss (1987) calls this use of newspeak as the attempt to ââ¬Å"narrow the range of human consciousness by limiting the range of words available and by eliminating their polysemic qualityâ⬠(p. 45). When some terms and concepts become unavailable for use or without a lingual equivalent, they become obsolete and forgotten by the mind. With the government controlling just which words to use and which ones to eliminate, the possibility of controlling the individuals and society becomes much larger. Here lies the power of language, which effectively affects how the brain processes and understands the world around him. Moreover, the concepts in Big Brothers society are defined in a manner describable as ââ¬Å"invertedâ⬠. A particularly significant example is the slogan ââ¬Å"war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strengthâ⬠ââ¬â everything in Wilsons world is completely upside down. It is, in essence, an example of doublethink, wherein one is forced to contain two opposing thoughts at the same time and believe them both. It is an ability forced on the people of Oceania; the citizens think of war and peace as one rather than opposing sides of the coin. Even when the citizens clearly know that Oceania switches allies from Eurasia to Eastasia constantly, they are capable of manipulating their own minds into thinking that what the Party calls its ââ¬Å"historyâ⬠has always been true and in place. Another significant theme in the novel is censorship. Radio, television and print censorship is, of course, the norm in Big Brothers world. More than the controls on media, however, the Party is also highly concerned with purity and the errors of sexual dalliances. Pornography or any form of ââ¬Å"smutâ⬠publications are also banned in Oceania, and sexual thoughts are viewed as impurities even when conducted within the boundaries of marriage. This mirrors the penchant of totalitarian governments to extend their powers over ââ¬Å"decencyâ⬠and issues of morality. Whether or not the reason behind this is truly about cleaning up society remains a mystery. Reviews on the Novel The significance of the novel 1984 can be seen in how todays academics remain enamored and continuously attempt to correlate the classic story of political and social manipulation to Orwells final masterpiece. Agathocleous (2000) took note of the relevance of the novel primarily through the proliferation of terms used in the novel in the modern jargon. The world presented by Orwell remains resonant in todays world, wherein his ideas have become ââ¬Å"common knowledgeâ⬠(p. 101). Orwells 1984 is no longer just a novel; it is now a part of popular culture. This popularity, Agathocleous (2000) attributes to the the relevance of the issues discussed by Orwell even in todays society. It is popular because it remains true and undated, thereby becoming a classic in its own right (p. 101). For Wanner (1997), on the other hand, notes that Orwells dystopian world is completely different from other portrayals of such negative societies. Unlike other dystopian nations, Orwells Oceania has resigned itself to imperfection and unhappiness without actually admitting it. Though the government may still tout this perfect world as their own, Orwell shows the characters to be living in a difficult world, one wherein pretenses are kept up in order to survive the constant watch of Big Brother. This world is described as hopeless, and it is accurate. Rather than follow other similar styles, Orwell opts to present a realistic view of his world and the negativity that sucks everything within its path (p. 77). Wanner (1997) also notes that Orwell is not entirely separate from socialism. Though the author does indict British socialism and other similar forms of totalitarianism, the presence of Goldstein, according to Wanner, shows that Orwell is still ambivalent regarding the best way to run a society. Even Goldstein, the supposed leader of the opposition, is not a figure against socialism. Wanner thus views this as a softening on Orwells part, noting that his message may not entirely be the indictment of all socialism (p. 77). Lastly, the concept of Orwellian language and politics have slowly caught up with the United States, thanks in no small part to the current administration. In his journal article, Kellner (2007) argues that Orwells world has remained enduring over the years because of its relevance. As such, Kellner easily correlates the ââ¬Å"War on Terrorâ⬠and the rhetoric that appears in Oceania as the modern equivalent of Orwells world (p. 622). These are some of the reviews that describe the relevance and endurance of the novel, 1984. It utilizes the dystopian model, with sensational usage of the power of language and new terms, in order to correlate Orwells fictional world with the present situation.
Monday, August 5, 2019
Coca Cola The Company | Commerce Essay
Coca Cola The Company | Commerce Essay Organizations do not simply appears on their own, It requires proper planning and formal structure to ensure that organization will perform as expected. It is a social system formed by likeminded people, to achieve stated objectives or common goals of participants. Organizational design deals with factors and issues that should be considered, rules and processes that must be implemented. A successful organizational design helps to develop, implement and maintain effective organizational process, (Allan S.Gutterman). Organizational design is more than just defining the formal structure of organization. (Allan S.Gutterman).it also includes management decision making process, values, policies, mission, vision, goals and purposes for which organization exists. Thus it requires creativity and careful planning to design structure of an organization. This creativity has led the organizational design to organizational architecture. Coca cola the company: http://jobs.paktutorial.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Coca-Cola.gif Coca cola is a beverage company. It is manufacturer, distributor, and marketer for non-alcohol beverages and syrups. The coca cola company is truly global firm in real terms. Coca cola operate very smartly around the globe. It knows how to deal with changed culture, drinking habits and taste for specific beverages in specific regions. It thus used to changes its syrup formula and molds it according to taste and preferences of people in different regions. There are five main factors that holds important place in success of coca cola. Well recognized brand Around the globe Consistently improving quality Innovative and unique marketing program worldwide Availability on large scale, almost in every region of world Continuous stream of quality products e.g. Diet Coke (1982), Coca-Cola Vanilla (2002). Probably, coca cola is the sole product that is universally relevant in every corner of the globe, the Company feels that its its responsibility is to ensure that with every single can or bottle of Coca-Cola sold and enjoyed, individual connections are made with their consumer. Organizational structure of coca cola: Organizational structure of coca cola has characteristics of both mechanical and organic structure. The company has a centralized structure but recently there is a twist, it is moving from centralized to decentralized structure. Coca cola is well aware of how important it is to meet ever changing demands of customers. This realization has played key role in transition from centralized to decentralized structure of Coca cola. Two main operating groups of company include corporate and bottling management. Corporate operations are also divided in different regions like America, Europe, and Africa North America etc. in order to be more responsive to local demands of customers in different regions, its will work a lot to allow and encourage decision making at local level. In this way, upper management can devote more time to long term planning rather than devoting time to short term and little issues. Important decisions of company like financial human resource, innovation marketing strategy etc are centrally located within corporate division of company. In each region f company, some of these functions are performed on low level; most of the decisions are made by top management of company. For instance the decision to support world cup was made by top management, but local and regional branched were also considered important and were allowed to make advertising decisions. Such as they were asked to develop marketing strategies for local market In 2004, new CEO, Neville lsdell introduced more complex interategrate mechanism. In order to recover from extremely growth rate or company, lsdell used team of top management to create a culture of innovation and decision making. Employees at lower level can be informed by face to face meetings. Balance in organizational design is important as it allows some flexibility, as well as it will give organization some flexibility. The design of the company is hybrid or mixture of both organic ad mechanistic structure, and the company emphasis more on responsiveness. Recent research has revealed that company has 94800 employees, and more than five hierarchal levels of organization. Although the structure is good enough, company faces the communication problem. One survey revealed that company and people lack clear goals and objectives. While organization is trying to engage ore employed, that tall hierarchies will also create communication problems at the company. From last two decades, many firms are founding it difficult to reach their financial objectives, due to recent ethical crisis associate with organizations financial objectives. Warren Buffet served as a member of the board of directors and was a strong supporter and investor in Coca-Cola but resigned from the board in 2006 after several years of frustration with Coca-Colas failure to overcome many challenges. In 2000, company failed to make the top ten of Fortunes annual Americas Most Admired Companies list for the first time in a decade. The company is committed to refresh everyone who had touched the business of coca cola. Thus company gained the status of well recognized brand around the globe. Coca cola has great concern for social responsibility. The company is fulfilling all requirements of Corporate and social responsibility. it believes in transparency, honesty and integrity in business dealings, improved relationships with all stakeholders. In its services for community, coca cola has provided scholarships to more than 170 colleges, and this number is expected to grow to 287 over the next four years. It includes 30 tribal colleges belonging to the American Indian College Fund. Coca-Cola is also involved with the Hispanic Scholarship Fund. So, the demand of more accountability has no clear impact on behavior of Coca Cola. Conclusion: Coca cola is a very well reputed and well recognized beverage supplier all around the globe. It has hybrid structure of organic and mechanistic structure of organization. The company is committed to provide continuously improved quality products. To be more responsive to local demand of customers in different regions, coca cola allows local managers, at lower level to make decisions about changing demands of local customers to be more responsive, flexible and adaptive to change. The structure of company has centralized decision making as well decentralized to some extent. Some decisions are made by top management and lower level employees are engaged in decision making process by allowing them to decide about promotional or marketing strategy for their respective regions. Coca cola is in struggle to Connect with more employees; this has created some communication problems for the company. Company has enough potential to cope with different challenges and issues. Coca cola has great concern for CSR practices and believe on transparency, honesty and integrity in business operations so, the increased demand to accountability has no negative impact on coca cola, and instead it is contributing factor in improved performance by the company.
Sunday, August 4, 2019
The Homeless are Not Legitimate Members of a Community Essay -- Argume
The Homeless are Not Legitimate Members of a Community In most every community in the United States there exists an ever-growing population of disenfranchised individuals, created by the absence of a home. Their place in the community allows them, at best, the socioeconomic status of ââ¬Å"the homeless-members in our community.â⬠But, are these homeless-members actually legitimate autonomous-members of a moral community? In this paper I will first argue that the homeless are not legitimate autonomous members of a community. Second that the community as a whole has a moral obligation to extend membership to the homeless by meeting their need for a home, and so legitimize their autonomy within the community. A moral community can most practically be defined as ââ¬Å"â⬠¦an entity constituted by all those people who have to work out meaningful ways of living together" (Ethics 98). It is the process of participants gaining access into a vast network of ââ¬Å"communal relations/negotiationsâ⬠which allows an individual the possibility to define and articulate his or her identity - with a sense of belonging. The grooming for participating in oneââ¬â¢s community starts primarily at home in family life, as an individual - embedded in a social group - develops a moral-identity through the negotiation process of choices and actions that has its full expression within the greater community. The homeless, at least to some degree, have little or no part in these communal negotiations in their community due to their transient unstable condition. The community has not openly excluded the homeless from negotiations, it is simply an inadvertent social reality that is ignored by the greater community. If a moral community is an inclusive integrated network in whi... ...tion, must negotiate a directive where the ââ¬Å"Goodâ⬠of that community can be fully realized by the inclusion of all persons worthy of membership ââ¬â worthy of a home. Otherwise, an unarticulated, disenfranchised human population in our community will continue to emerge on the other side of the economic-divide; inducing an ââ¬Å"increased social dissonance.â⬠For how can members of a moral community exclaim, ââ¬Å"thereââ¬â¢s no place like homeâ⬠if persons in their mist lament, ââ¬Å"thereââ¬â¢s no place - for us!â⬠In the words of Peter Singer: ââ¬Å"If it is in our power to save someoneââ¬â¢s life with little cost to our own lives, then we our morally obligated to do so, and not to do so is morally reprehensibleâ⬠(Ethics 55). Works Cited Abbarno, G. John M. ed. The Ethics of Homelessness; Philosophical Perspectives: Value Inquire Book Series, Vol. 86. Rodopi (Amsterdam, Atlanta, Ga), 1999.
The Singlesââ¬â¢ Scene Essay -- Essays Papers
The Singlesââ¬â¢ Scene "[W]e are all often complicit in the silencing of students. The victims often silence themselves as wellâ⬠¦"(Hall 7). Is my hair ok? How does my makeup look? Am I going to look like a geek if I answer another question? Do I have to play sports to impress the girls? These kinds of insecurities flood an adolescents mind when placed into a coed education. Instead of focusing on the task put forth by the teacher, the task that should be the most important thing on his or her mind, adolescents are distracted by others around them, especially the opposite sex. Preteens have "a lot on their plates". New schoolwork, new bodies, and new feelings are just part of their every day lives. On top of all of this they are required to navigate through a coed school. Many may argue that the coed factor is just a part of life and the faster a child learns how to cope with it the better off they will be. However, one must learn how to crawl before being able to walk. Perhaps the issue is not learning the fastest way to walk but instead learning the most proficient way to walk. With this idea in mind the way to learn wi th the most dexterity would be by following the path of single sex education from the fourth grade to the eighth grade or during the age of adolescence. As a product of four years of single sex education I can attest first hand that it is the path to take for oneââ¬â¢s adolescent years. Leon Podles and Elizabeth Fox-Genovese, journalists for the American Enterprise, agree with my argument for same sex education through the adolescent years. They state: "The point of separating boys and girls during adolescence is to separate the training of good citizens from the vicissitudes of mating and dating, which notor... ...o be in single-sex education. They are not taught to be intolerant of the opposite sex but rather to be able to learn in a way that caters specifically to their needs at that age. Distraction is the underlying and most crucial problem. When an adolescent is in a situation where the opposite sex is a around, learning about Paul Revere is the furthest thing from their mind. The stress of impressing others is a learning impediment that a preteen must face everyday. In stress management courses one is taught to locate the stress factor and then work to remove it to create a less stressful environment. In this case the added stress and distraction stems directly from the opposite sex. Thus, the removal of the stress (the opposite sex) would break through the barrier that is inhibiting the learning process in adolescents and lead to new paths of knowledge and confidence.
Saturday, August 3, 2019
A Cure For Shyness? Essay -- Biology Essays Research Papers
A Cure For Shyness? Many of us experience a pounding heartbeat or shaking when faced with a public situation, especially if we think we are going to be judged by others. When does this cross the line between normal and a mores serious disorder? Social anxiety disorder, a relatively newly recognized disorder by the psychiatric profession, involves many of the same symptoms as shyness. What makes the difference between a case of the jitters and a real disorder? Social Anxiety Disorder was first recognized by the American Psychiatric Association as a disorder in 1980 (1). It is characterized by such physical symptoms as increased heartbeat, blushing, dry mouth, trembling and shaking, difficulty swallowing, and twitching in the muscles (2). Many people with social anxiety disorder also have depression. A study in France found that 70 percent of patients who developed social anxiety disorder before the age of 15 also suffered from major depression (3). Diagnostic criteria, according to the current definition of social anxiety disorder given by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of the American Psychiatric Association, 4th ed. (DSM-IV), requires a persistent fear of at least one social situation which involves exposure to unfamiliar people or scrutiny by others. The patient must fear that he or she will act in this situation in a way that will cause embarrassment, and avoid the situation or experience extreme anxiety or a panic attack if fac ed with the situation. The patient must also realize that the fear is unreasonable. The avoidance or anxiety must interfere to a large extent with the normal routine, functioning, social activities, or relationships with the person (1). This last criterion, a significant interference ... ...%3Dhave51822&cont=&msg=No+Session+cookies&sserv=no 10) Coming to you direct , from Expanded Academic http://infotrac.galegroup.com/itweb/have51822?http_rc=400&class=session&sev=temp&type=session&cause=http%3A%2F%2Fweb6.infotrac.galegroup.com%2Fitw%2Finfomark%2F430%2F157%2F36658653w3%2Fpurl%3Drc2_EAIM_1_coming%2Bto%2Byou%2Bdirect______________________________________________%26dyn%3Dsig!1%3Fsw_aep%3Dhave51822&cont=&msg=No+Session+cookies&sserv=no 11) Selling Shyness - How doctors and drug companies created the "social phobia" epidemic , from Expanded Academic http://infotrac.galegroup.com/itweb/have51822?http_rc=400&class=session&sev=temp&type=session&cause=http%3A%2F%2Fweb2.infotrac.galegroup.com%2Fitw%2Finfomark%2F746%2F514%2F36545191w3%2Fpurl%3Drc1_EAIM_0_A64993728%26dyn%3D23!xrn_59_0_A64993728%3Fsw_aep%3Dhave51822&cont=&msg=No+Session+cookies&sserv=no
Friday, August 2, 2019
Forecasting Essay
1. Tupperware only uses both qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques, culminating in a final forecast that is the consensus of all participating managers. False (Global company profile: Tupperware Corporation, moderate) 2. The forecasting time horizon and the forecasting techniques used tend to vary over the life cycle of a product. True (What is forecasting? moderate) 3. Sales forecasts are an input to financial planning, while demand forecasts impact human resource decisions. True (Types of forecasts, moderate) 4. Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families. False (Seven steps in the forecasting system, moderate) 5. Most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system. True (Seven steps in the forecasting system, moderate) 6. The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersonsââ¬â¢ estimates of expected sales. True (Forecasting approaches, easy) 7. A time-series model uses a series of past data points to make the forecast. True (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 8. The quarterly ââ¬Å"make meetingâ⬠of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast. True (Forecasting approaches, easy) 9. Cycles and random variations are both components of time series. True (Time-series forecasting, easy) 10. A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales in August. True (Time-series forecasting, easy) 11. One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved. True (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 12. The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method, the greater the methodââ¬â¢s responsiveness to changes in demand. False (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 13. Forecast including trend is an exponential smoothing technique that utilizes two smoothing constants: one for the average level of the forecast and one for its trend. True (Time-series forecasting, easy) 14. Mean Squared Error and Coefficient of Correlation are two measures of the overall error of a forecasting model. False (Time-series forecasting, easy) 15. In trend projection, the trend component is the slope of the regression equation. True (Time-series forecasting, easy) 16. In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible. False (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 17. Seasonal indexes adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals. True (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 18. If a quarterly seasonal index has been calculated at 1.55 for the October-December quarter, then raw data for that quarter must be multiplied by 1.55 so that the quarter can be fairly compared to other quarters. False (Time-series forecasting: Seasonal variation in data, moderate) 19. The best way to forecast a business cycle is by finding a leading variable. True (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 20. Linear-regression analysis is a straight-line mathematical model to describe the functional relationships between independent and dependent variables. True (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, easy) 21. The larger the standard error of the estimate, the more accurate the forecasting model. False (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, easy) 22. A trend projection equation with a slope of 0.78 means that there is a 0.78 unit rise in Y for every unit of time that passes. True (Time-series forecasting: Trend projections, moderate) 23. In a regression equation where Y is demand and X is advertising, a coefficient of determination (R2) of .70 means that 70% of the variance in advertising is explained by demand. False (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, moderate) 24. Tracking limits should be within à ± 8 MADs for low-volume stock items. True (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, moderate) 25. If a forecast is consistently greater than (or less than) actual values, the forecast is said to be biased. True (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, moderate) 26. Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application. True (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, moderate) 27. Many service firms use point-of-sale computers to collect detailed records needed for accurate short-term forecasts. True (Forecasting in the service sector, moderate) MULTIPLE CHOICE 28. Tupperwareââ¬â¢s use of forecasting a.involves only a few statistical tools b.concentrates on the low-level dealer, and is not aggregated at the company level c.relies on the fact that all of its products are in the maturity phase of the life cycle d.is a major source of its competitive edge over its rivals e.takes inputs from sales, marketing, and finance, but not from production d (Global company profile, moderate) 29. Which of the following statements regarding Tupperwareââ¬â¢s forecasting is false? a.Tupperwareââ¬â¢s fifty profit centers generate the basic set of projections. b.Tupperware uses at least three quantitative forecasting techniques. c.Tupperware uses only quantitative forecasting techniques. d.â⬠Sales per active dealerâ⬠is one of three key forecasting variables (factors). e.â⬠Jury of executive opinionâ⬠is the ultimate forecasting tool used at Tupperware. c (Global company profile, moderate) 30. Forecasts a.become more accurate with longer time horizons b.are rarely perfect c.are more accurate for individual items than for groups of items d.all of the above e.none of the above b (What is forecasting? moderate) 31. One use of short-range forecasts is to determine a.production planning b.inventory budgets c.research and development plans d.facility location e.job assignments e (What is forecasting? moderate) 32. Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into three categories a.short-range, medium-range, and long-range b.finance/accounting, marketing, and operations c.strategic, tactical, and operational d.exponential smoothing, regression, and time series e.departmental, organizational, and industrial a (What is forecasting? easy) 33. A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a a.long-range forecast b.medium-range forecast c.short-range forecast d.weather forecast e.strategic forecast b (What is forecasting? moderate) 34. Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a a.short-range time horizon b.medium-range time horizon c.long-range time horizon d.naive method, because there is no data history e.all of the above c (What is forecasting? moderate) 35. The three major types of forecasts used by business organizations are a.strategic, tactical, and operational b.economic, technological, and demand c.exponential smoothing, Delphi, and regression d.causal, time-series, and seasonal e.departmental, organizational, and territorial b (Types of forecasts, moderate) 36. Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process? a.Determine the use of the forecast. b.Eliminate any assumptions. c.Determine the time horizon. d.Select forecasting model. e.Validate and implement the results. b (The strategic importance of forecasting, moderate) 37. The two general approaches to forecasting are a.qualitative and quantitative b.mathematical and statistical c.judgmental and qualitative d.historical and associative e.judgmental and associative a (Forecasting approaches, easy) 38. Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents? a.executive opinions b.sales force composites c.the Delphi method d.consumer surveys e.time series analysis c (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 39. The forecasting model that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as the a.sales force composition model b.multiple regression c.jury of executive opinion model d.consumer market survey model e.management coefficients model c (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 40. Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting? a.executive opinions b.sales force composites c.consumer surveys d.the Delphi method e.moving average e (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 41. Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand? a.associative models b.exponential smoothing c.weighted moving average d.simple moving average e.time series a (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 42. Which of the following statements about time series forecasting is true? a.It is based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. b.It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. c.The analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. d.Because it accounts for trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, it is more powerful than causal forecasting. e.All of the above are true. c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 43. Time series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors? a.trend b.random variations c.seasonality d.cycles e.They may exhibit all of the above. e (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 44. Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called a.seasonal variation b.cycles c.trends d.exponential variation e.random variation c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 45. Which of the following is not present in a time series? a.seasonality b.operational variations c.trend d.cycles e.random variations b (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 46. The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the a.duration of the repeating patterns b.magnitude of the variation c.ability to attribute the pattern to a cause d.all of the above e.none of the above a (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 47. In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted? a.large increases in demand b.technological trends c.seasonal fluctuations d.random fluctuations e.large decreases in demand d (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 48. What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average? 49. Which time series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent periodââ¬â¢s demand? a.naive approach b.moving average approach c.weighted moving average approach d.exponential smoothing approach e.none of the above a (Time-series forecasting, easy) 50. Which of the following is not a characteristic of simple moving averages? a.It smoothes random variations in the data. b.It has minimal data storage requirements. c.It weights each historical value equally. d.It lags changes in the data. e.It smoothes real variations in the data. b (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 51. A six-month moving average forecast is better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand a.is rather stable b.has been changing due to recent promotional efforts c.follows a downward trend d.follows a seasonal pattern that repeats itself twice a year e.follows an upward trend a (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 52. Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of a.manager understanding b.accuracy c.stability d.responsiveness to changes e.All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases. d (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 53. Which of the following statements comparing the weighted moving average technique and exponential smoothing is true? a.Exponential smoothing is more easily used in combination with the Delphi method. b.More emphasis can be placed on recent values using the weighted moving average. c.Exponential smoothing is considerably more difficult to implement on a computer. d.Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data. e.Exponential smoothing allows one to develop forecasts for multiple periods, whereas weighted moving averages does not. d (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 54. Which time series model uses past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast? a.naive b.moving average c.weighted moving average d.exponential smoothing e.regression analysis d (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 55. Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing? a.smoothes random variations in the data b.easily altered weighting scheme c.weights each historical value equally d.has minimal data storage requirements e.none of the above; they are all characteristics of exponential smoothing c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 56. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast? a.0 b.1 divided by the number of periods c.0.5 d.1.0 e.cannot be determined d (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 57. Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be a.94.6 b.97.4 c.100.6 d.101.6 e.103.0 c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 58. A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n) a.qualitative forecast b.naive forecast c.moving average forecast d.weighted moving average forecast e.exponentially smoothed forecast e (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 59. Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing? a.45.5 b.57.1 c.58.9 d.61.0 e.65.5 c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 60. Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to forecast errors? a.0.10 b.0.20 c.0.40 d.0.80 e.cannot be determined a (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 61. A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation? 62. The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to a.estimate the trend line b.eliminate forecast errors c.measure forecast accuracy d.seasonally adjust the forecast e.all of the above c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 63. Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation? a.2 b.3 c.4 d.8 e.16 c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 64. The last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is a.2 b.-10 c.3.5 d.9 e.10.5 c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 65. A time series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1 X. What is your forecast for period 7? a.23.2 b.25.3 c.27.4 d.40.0 e.cannot be determined d (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 66. For a given product demand, the time series trend equation is 53 ââ¬â 4 X. The negative sign on the slope of the equation a.is a mathematical impossibility b.is an indication that the forecast is biased, with forecast values lower than actual values c.is an indication that product demand is declining d.implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative e.implies that the RSFE will be negative c (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 67. In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast including trend (FIT) consists of a.an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value b.an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor c.the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor d.the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor e.a moving average and a trend factor b (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 68. Which of the following is true regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT) model? a.One constant is positive, while the other is negative. b.They are called MAD and RSFE. c.Alpha is always smaller than beta. d.One constant smoothes the regression intercept, whereas the other smoothes the regression slope. e.Their values are determined independently. e (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 69. Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January? a.640 units b.798.75 units c.800 units d.1000 units e.cannot be calculated with the information given a (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 70. A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three yearsââ¬â¢ accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average over all months is 190. The approximate seasonal index for July is a.0.487 b.0.684 c.1.462 d.2.053 e. cannot be calculated with the information given b (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 71. A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that a.trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not b.only linear regression can have a negative slope c.in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power d.linear regression tends to work better on data that lack trends e.trend projection uses two smoothing constants, not just one c (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, moderate) 72. The percent of variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the regression equation is measured by the a.mean absolute deviation b.slope c.coefficient of determination d.correlation coefficient e.intercept c (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, moderate) 73. The degree or strength of a linear relationship is shown by the a.alpha b.mean c.mean absolute deviation d.correlation coefficient e.RSFE d (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, moderate) 74. If two variables were perfectly correlated, the correlation coefficient r would equal a.0 b.less than 1 c.exactly 1 d.-1 or +1 e.greater than 1 d (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation analysis, moderate) 75. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate a.qualitative methods b.adaptive smoothing c.slope d.bias e.trend projection d (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, easy) 76. The tracking signal is the a.standard error of the estimate b.running sum of forecast errors (RSFE) c.mean absolute deviation (MAD) d.ratio RSFE/MAD e.mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) d (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, moderate) 77. Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of a.exponential smoothing including trend b.adaptive smoothing c.trend projection d.focus forecasting e.multiple regression analysis b (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, moderate) 78. Many services maintain records of sales noting a.the day of the week b.unusual events c.weather d.holidays e.all of the above e (Forecasting in the service sector, moderate) 79. Taco Bellââ¬â¢s unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using a.point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals b.focus forecasting c.a six-week moving average forecasting technique d.multiple regression e.a and c are both correct e (Forecasting in the service sector, moderate) 96. A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes. Any three of: planning purchasing, job scheduling, work force levels, job assignments, production levels. (What is forecasting? moderate) 97. A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes. Any three of: planning new products, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, research and development. (What is forecasting? moderate) 98. Describe the three forecasting time horizons and their use. Forecasting time horizons are: short rangeââ¬âgenerally less than three months, used for purchasing, job scheduling, work force levels, production levels; medium rangeââ¬âusually from three months up to three years, used for sales planning, production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing operating plans; long rangeââ¬âusually three years or more, used for new product development, capital expenditures, facility planning, and R&D. (What is forecasting? moderate) 99. List and briefly describe the three major types of forecasts. The three types are economic, technological, and demand; economic refers to macroeconomic, growth and financial variables; technological refers to forecasting amount of technological advance, or futurism; demand refers toà product demand. (Types of forecasts, moderate) 100. List the seven steps involved in forecasting. 1. Determine the use of the forecast. 2. Select the items that are to be forecast. 3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast. 4. Select the forecasting model(s). 5. Gather the data needed to make the forecast. 6. Make the forecast. 7. Validate the forecasting mode and implement the results. (Seven steps in the forecasting process, moderate) 101. What are the realities of forecasting that companies face? First, forecasts are seldom perfect. Second, most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system. Finally, both product family and aggregated forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts. (Seven steps in the forecasting system, moderate) 102. What are the differences between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods? Quantitative methods use mathematical models to analyze historical data. Qualitative methods incorporate such factors as the decision makerââ¬â¢s intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and value systems in determining the forecast. (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 103. List four quantitative forecasting methods. The list includes naive, moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend projection, and linear regression. (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 104. What is a time-series forecasting model? A time series forecasting model is any mathematical model that uses historical values of the quantity of interest to predict future values of that quantity. (Forecasting approaches, easy) 105. What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model? A time series model uses only historical values of the quantity of interest to predict future values of that quantity. The associative model, on the other hand, attempts to identify underlying causes or factors that control the variation of the quantity of interest, predict future values of these factors, and use these predictions in a model to predict future values of the specific quantity of interest. (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 106. Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods. Qualitative forecasting methods include: jury of executive opinion, where high-level managers arrive at a group estimate of demand; sales force composite, where salespersonsââ¬â¢ estimates are aggregated; Delphi method, where respondents provide inputs to a group of decision makers; the group of decision makers, often experts, then make the actual forecast; consumer market survey, where consumers are queried about their future purchase plans. (Forecasting approaches, moderate) 107. List the four components of a time series. Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so? Trend, seasonality, cycles, and random variation. Since random variations follow no discernible pattern, they cannot be predicted, and thus are not forecast. (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 108. Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects. A cycle is longer (typically several years) than a season (typically days, weeks, months, or quarters). A cycle has variable duration, while a season has fixed duration and regular repetition. (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 109. Distinguish between a moving average model and an exponential smoothing model. Exponential smoothing is a weighted moving average model wherein previous values are weighted in a specific mannerââ¬âin particular, all previous values are weighted with a set of weights that decline exponentially. (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 110. Describe three popular measures of forecast accuracy. Measures of forecast accuracy include: (a) MAD (mean absolute deviation). This is a sum of the absolute values of individual errors divided by theà number of periods of data. (b) MSE (mean squared error). This is the average of the squared differences between the forecast and observed values. (c) MAPE (mean absolute percent error) is independent of the magnitude of the variable being forecast. (Forecasting approaches: Measuring forecast error, moderate) 111. Give an exampleââ¬âother than a restaurant or other food-service firmââ¬âof an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern. (That is, each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.) Explain. Answer will vary. However, two non-food examples would be banks and movie theaters. (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 112. Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise) in forecasting. That is, how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting? For trend projection, the independent variable is time. The trend projection equation has a slope that is the change in demand per period. To forecast the demand for period t, perform the calculation a + bt. For causal forecasting, the independent variables are predictors of the forecast value or dependent variable. The slope of the regression equation is the change in the Y variable per unit change in the X variable. (Time-series forecasting, diff icult) 113. List three advantages of the moving average forecasting model. List three disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model. Two advantages of the model are that it uses simple calculations, it smoothes out sudden fluctuations, and it is easy for users to understand. The disadvantages are that the averages always stay within past ranges, that they require extensive record keeping of past data, and that they do not pick up on trends very well. (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 114. What does it mean to ââ¬Å"decomposeâ⬠a time series? To decompose a time series means to break past data down into components of trends, seasonality, cycles, and random blips, and to project them forward. (Time-series forecasting, easy) 115. Distinguish a dependent variable from an independent variable. Theà independent variable causes some behavior in the dependent variable; the dependent variable shows the effect of changes in the independent variable. (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation, moderate) 116. Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the coefficient of determination. The coefficient of determination measures the amount (percent) of total variation in the data that is explained by the model. (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation, moderate) 117. What is a tracking signal? How is it calculated? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals. A tracking signal is a measure of how well the forecast actually predicts. Its calculation is the ratio of RSFE to MAD. The larger the absolute tracking signal, the worse the forecast is performing. Adaptive smoothing sets limits to the tracking signal, and makes changes to its forecasting models when the tracking signal goes beyond those limits. (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, moderate) 118. What is focus forecasting? It is a forecasting method that tries a variety of computer models, and selects the one that is best for a particular application. (Monitoring and controlling forecasts, easy) 124. A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain. Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed, a forecast of 172 items for that period, and a smoothing constant of 0.3, what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness. 166.6; 161.2 The larger the smoothing constant in an exponentially smoothed forecast, the more responsive the forecast. (Time-series forecasting, easy) 126. The following trend projection is used to predict quarterly demand: Y = 250 ââ¬â 2.5t, where t = 1 in the first quarter of 2004. Seasonal (quarterly) relatives are Quarter 1 = 1.5; Quarter 2 = 0.8; Quarter 3 = 1.1; and Quarter 4 = 0.6. What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for the four quarters of 2006? PeriodProjectionAdjusted 9 227.5341.25 10 225180.00 11222.5224.75 12220132.00 (Time-series forecasting, moderate) 127. Jimââ¬â¢s department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last ten weeks. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4, and an initial forecast of 28.0. Calculate MAD and the tracking signal. What do you recommend? 130. A small family-owned restaurant uses a seven-day moving average model to determine manpower requirements. These forecasts need to be seasonalized because each day of the week has its own demand pattern. The seasonal relatives for each day of the week are: Monday, 0.445; Tuesday, 0.791; Wednesday, 0.927; Thursday, 1.033; Friday, 1.422; Saturday, 1.478; and Sunday 0.903. Average daily demand based on the most recent moving average is 194 patrons. What is the seasonalized forecast for each day of next week? The average value multiplied by each dayââ¬â¢s seasonal index. Monday: 194 x .445 = 86; Tuesday: 194 x .791 = 153; Wednesday: 194 x .927 = 180; Thursday: 194 x 1.033 = 200; Friday: 194 x 1.422 = 276; Saturday: 194 x 1.478 = 287; and Sunday: 194 x .903 = 175. (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation, moderate) 131. A restaurant has tracked the number of meals served at lunch over the last four weeks. The data shows little in terms of trends, but does display substantial variation by day of the week. Use the following information to determine the seasonal (daily) index for this restaurant. 132. A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year (Y) is related to the number of employees (X) by the regression equation Y = 3.3 + 0.049*X. R-Square is 0.68. The regression is based on 20 annual observations. The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year. How many accidents do you project? How much confidence do you have in that forecast? Y = 3.3 + 0.049 * 480 = 3.3 + 23.52 = 26.52 accidents. This is not a time series, so next year = year 21 is of no relevance. Confidence comes from the coefficient of determination; the model explains 68% of the variation in number of accidents, which seems respectable. (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation, moderate) 133. Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January? 8,000 x 1.25 = 10,000 (Time-series forecasting, easy) 134. A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three yearsââ¬â¢ accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 160. The approximate seasonal index for July isà (110 + 135 + 130)/3 = 125; 125/160 = 0.781 (Time-series forecasting,à moderate) 135. Marie Bain is the production manager at a company that manufactures hot water heaters. Marie needs a demand forecast for the next few years to help decide whether to add new production capacity. The companyââ¬â¢s sales history (in thousands of units) is shown in the table below. Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, to forecast demand for period 6. The initial forecast for period 1 was 11 units; the initial estimate of trend was 0. The smoothing constants are = .3 and à · = .3 136. The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table. Compute the four seasonal factors. 137. An innovative restaurateur owns and operates a dozen ââ¬Å"Ultimate Low-Carbâ⬠restaurants in northern Arkansas. His signature item is a cheese-encrusted beef medallion wrapped in lettuce. Sales (X, in millions of dollars) is related to Profits (Y, in hundreds of thousands of dollars) by the regression equation Y = 8.21 + 0.76 X. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $40 million? $50 million? Students must recognize that sales is the independent variable and profits is dependent; the problem is not a time series. A store with $40 million in sales: 40 x 0.76 = 30.4; 30.4 + 8.21 = 38.61, or $3,861,000 in profit; $50 million in sales is estimated to profit 46.21 or $4,621,000. (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation, moderate) 138. Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein ââ¬Å"hamburgerâ⬠restaurants in northern Louisiana. Sales figures and profits for the stores are in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; profits are in hundreds of thousands of dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $24 million? $30 million? Students must recognize that ââ¬Å"salesâ⬠is the independent variable and profits is dependent. Store number is not a variable, and the problem is not a time series. The regression equation is Y = 5.936 + 1.421 X (Y = profit, X = sales). A store with $24 million in sales is estimated to profit 40.04 or $4,004,000; $30 million in sales should yield 48.566 or $4,856,600 in profit. (Associative forecasting methods: Regression and correlation, moderate) 139. The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. Calculate the MAD for the managerââ¬â¢s forecast. Compare the managerââ¬â¢s forecast against a naive forecast. Which is better?
Thursday, August 1, 2019
Animal Rights
Do the rights of animals precede the advancement of science? The quicker the world answers this question and realizes the significance of animals for our own existence the better. Tougher rules on animal trafficking which is a 19 billion global industry, penalties on animal abuse and steps taken for animal conservation and banning animal testing are good primary steps taken by most European nations and the United States but a more positive effect will only come to show if the entire world takes this matter more seriously.Animal rights teach us that certain things are wrong as a matter of Renville, that there are some things which are morally wrong to do to animals. Human beings must not do those things, even If they do them In a ââ¬Å"humaneâ⬠way. The fact that people take animals as a means to fulfill their own desires and needs and not as a living being, something that feels pain just like any human does makes them do cruel things.Roughly 17 thousand species are known to be threatened with extinction a curve that increases every year as more and more species of birds, mammals and sea-life are pulled closer to extinction. In Africa Ivory poachers have ailed 65% of forest elephant population In the last 11 years. According to a Washington based wildlife conservation agency around a 100-million sharks are killed annually to make the popular Chinese delicacy, sharkskin soup.Most people are oblivious to the fact that most of their cosmetics and toiletries are first tested on innocent animals before they can be used by them these animals Include small rodents, great apes dogs etc. These apes which are known to be the smartest of all creatures and share 96% of Human DNA and largely sociable creatures and undergo both physical and mental trauma being kept in isolation for cascades. Statistics show that every year around 100 Million animals die in American laboratories for chemical, drug, food and cosmetics testing.Death Is probably the best thing that happens to them after they are confined to their barren cages. Before their deaths, some are forced to inhale toxic fumes, others are immobilizers in restraint devices for hours and some have holes drilled into their skulls. The only argument that people buy to Justify animal experimentation is that it helps improve Human health. The reality is that the majority of animal experiments do not intricate to Improving human health, and the value of the role that animal experimentation plays In most medical advances Is questionable.Diseases that are artificially induced in animals in a laboratory are never identical to those that occur naturally in human beings and hence the results are obsolete and useless. It makes no difference if the animals are given 5-star treatment throughout their lives and then killed humanely without any fear or pain ââ¬â it's just plain wrong in principle, and nothing can make it right. Animal rights should receive careful consideration because equals not inferiors .
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